Arizona Real Estate and Community News

Sept. 3, 2019

Market Update

Market Summary for the Beginning of October

The Cromford® Market Index stayed over 200 for the second month since 2005, but failed to rise further. The market remains hot and very unbalanced in favor of sellers but the situation did not get more extreme. This is largely due to seasonal factors. Between September and December we always see active listings grow each year. October in particular is a very popular month for creating a listing. However sales activity always declines steadily as the temperature cools, despite the influx of snowbirds, some of whom decide to buy somewhere, often in a spot more conducive to retirement or vacation rather than commuting.

In almost every year we have seen a move in favor of buyers during the period September to November, though the effect can be slight, moderate or significant. This year it looks to be slight, but it still exists

We note that September 2019 contained 20 working days while September 2018 contained only 19. This gives September 2019 a 5.3% advantage. We should bear that in mind when looking at the large increases in monthly sales compared to September last year.

Compared with August 2019, September gave us

  • a slight increase in active listings
  • a noticeable drop in demand numbers (sales, pending, under contract)
  • very little movement in sales pricing
  • a large upward movement in for-sale pricing
  • a large upward movement in under contract pricing

The first 3 of these are to be expected every year in September. The last 2 are not so common and are the first sign of the significant up-tick in pricing that inevitably follows a major move higher by the Cromford® Market Index. It would be surprising if we do not see a corresponding move higher by sales prices over the next several months. Please don't say we didn't warn you.

Mortgage interest rates have plummeted since January creating an unexpected jolt of affordability into the housing market. In most circumstances, greater affordability translates into strong demand. However, there are now significant signs of weakness in the US economy (and the rest of the world). International trade disputes have a history of hurting both sides quite badly. In the USA, the manufacturing and agriculture sectors are probably the most exposed to unwelcome trends. The Federal Reserve will often cut interest rates in a faltering economy and if they do, and if these cuts translate to even lower mortgage rates, we could see continuing jolts of affordability for the housing market. If we are to enter a recession, then the housing market will not be the leading cause like it was in 2008. In Central Arizona it should remain in pretty decent shape as long as the current employment trends hold reasonably steady. Unlike last time, the Greater Phoenix housing market looks well placed to weather a mild to moderate economic storm.

Here are the basics - the ARMLS numbers for October 1, 2019 compared with October 1, 2018 for all areas & types:

  • Active Listings (excluding UCB & CCBS): 13,755 versus 16,819 last year - down 18.2% - but up 1.1% from 13,609 last month
  • Active Listings (including UCB & CCBS): 17,592 versus 20,303 last year - down 13.4% - but up 0.1% compared with 17,577 last month
  • Pending Listings: 6,011 versus 5,195 last year - up 15.7% - but down 5.3% from 6,350 last month
  • Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 9,848 versus 8,679 last year - up 13.5% - but down 4.6% from 10,318 last month
  • Monthly Sales: 7,987 versus 7,067 last year - up 13.0% - but down 10.4% from 8,913 last month
  • Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $169.58 versus $161.31 last year - up 5.1% - and up 0.2% from $169.19 last month
  • Monthly Median Sales Price: $279,500 versus $260,000 last year - up 7.5% - but down 0.2% from $280,000 last month

If you or anyone you know is looking to make a move, Please let us know!

Buying | Selling | Investing



Aug. 29, 2019

Trade In Program Review

Troy is very easy to talk to, very experienced and it shows. Awesomely cleaver with advertising, pictures and searches. HUGE shoutout in order!!! We interviewed several agents prior to listing. One was Zillow who was going to buy our home for 390K prior to the "cost of repairs". Another realtor was going to sell our home for 435K AND we would also be paying a 6% standard realty fee. This would have cost us $26,000!!!! Wanting to save and earn the absolute most money we could, I decided to look into Homesmart, who advertised they would sell your home for free. Extremely skeptical, I contacted Jesse Torres and Troy Holland who came to our home that night.
Jesse listed our home at $457,000. They advertised our home all over the internet PRIOR to listing on the MLS, while we were preparing. They took absolutely beautiful pictures with a professional photographer and also overhead with a drone. Our home was featured on a giant postcard that circulated all over East Mesa. Jesse and Troy were immediately available 24/7 with any and all questions or concerns we had. Jesse also showed up to our document signing which I have never had a realtor do in the 5 homes I have bought and sold. Also, Jet closing was amazing, they sent a notary to OUR HOME to sign at 8pm which was extremely convenient and a first.
WE SAVED $13,710.00 in REALTOR FEES by going with Jesse Torres!!!! I remained skeptical until today when we walked away with over $138,000.00 profit deposited into our account today. This is well over $40,000.00+ more than we thought we would have to put down towards our new home.
I have never been more impressed with a realtor and company all the way around!!! I always wondered why my listing agent was making so much money just listing our home on the MLS. Jesse did this and so much more! At the end, I actually felt bad and thought he went above and beyond to earn every bit of that commission that he didn't get.
We will be purchasing our new home with Jesse Torres/Homesmart and wouldn't even think of hiring anyone else when/if we sell and buy again. I would and will recommend this team to EVERYONE and ANYONE I know and meet. Thank you so much Jesse!!! I'm still in shock!
ALSO: Anyone who is wasting money on rent, STOP!! I purchased a home as a single mom 9 years ago with $5,200.00. Sold my boat to get that. In just under 10 years I have turned that 5200 into over 130K!! All by owning and not renting!! YOU CAN DO IT!!

Posted in Selling Your Home
Aug. 17, 2019



  • I listed my home on Zillow for a month and a half. Couple of people looked at it, and no offers.

Then I listed it with Troy. In the first 7 days had about 25 people look at home and accepted one of the two offers we received. Great approach, service, and professionalism. I highly recommend him and  will use him in the future.

08/01/2018 - Mark Smith


Sold a Single Family home in 2018 in Highland Groves At Morrison Ranch, Gilbert, AZ.



Posted in Selling Your Home
Aug. 9, 2019

August Market Report

Market Summary for the Beginning of August

The market is hot and becoming very unbalanced in favor of sellers. Demand recovered suddenly during the second quarter and has stabilized at a level significantly above normal. The last 2 months have seen supply drop sharply from its already low level, so we now have a wholly inadequate number of homes for sale to keep the market functioning normally.

Last month we noted the unusual drop in active listings (excluding UCB & CCBS), which fell to 4.1% below the 2018 level on July 1. On August 1 this gap has expanded to a startling 12.4%. Much of this decline was due to the low number of listings activated during July - 8,260 is our current count, the lowest number for July that we have seen since we started keeping records. With pending and UCB contracts up by 13 to 15% from last year, the supply has tightened dramatically. Where have all the sellers gone?

9,325 closed listings is another strong monthly total for July. The 9.2% growth over July 2018 is a little misleading, however. This is because July 2019 had 22 working days, so the number of closings per day was 424. July 2018 had only 21 days so 407 closings per day. The difference is 4%.

Dollar volume for July was $3.1995 billion. This is the highest total for any July in history.

Pricing is showing no excitement whatsoever, behaving as if the market was normal. This cannot last. Remember that sales pricing is a trailing indicator, often as much as 12 months behind the leading indicators. We expect to see fireworks in pricing over the next 12 months. In fact the current situation reminds us of 2004. The huge imbalance between supply and demand and the absence of distressed properties are very similar. The big difference is that 2004 was seeing large price increases and a significant number of the homes were being bought for resale by speculative investors and remained empty. The level of mortgage fraud in 2004 was also extraordinary. Hopefully that is not the case in 2019.

These are very interesting times, unlike the past 5 years which were stable and predictable.

Here are the basics - the ARMLS numbers for August 1, 2019 compared with August 1, 2018 for all areas & types:

  • Active Listings (excluding UCB & CCBS): 13,746 versus 15,686 last year - down 12.4% - and down 11.0% from 15,442 last month
  • Active Listings (including UCB & CCBS): 17,920 versus 19,415 last year - down 7.7% - and down 10.5% compared with 20,030 last month
  • Pending Listings: 6,479 versus 5,655 last year - up 14.6% - and up 0.6% from 6,642 last month
  • Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 10,653 versus 9,384 last year - up 13.5% - but down 5.1% from 11,230 last month
  • Monthly Sales: 9,325 versus 8,543 last year - up 9.2% - but down 1.7% from 9,483 last month
  • Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $170.16 versus $160.79 last year - up 5.8% - but down 1.2% from $172.21 last month
  • Monthly Median Sales Price: $280,000 versus $265,000 last year - up 5.7% - and up 0.4% from $279,000 last month


Buying | Selling | Investing

Save Thousands


(Info Provided by the Cromford Report)
Posted in Market Updates
June 24, 2019

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July 31, 2017

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Posted in Market Updates